I had a brain wave the other day and think I have worked out a way to prove, beyond all doubt, where I am in almost any given activity.
You’ll see on my About page that I list myself as average. I’m a generally good person, a reasonable personality that some can take and some can leave. I play most sports … well, but will rarely be guaranteed to win. Perhaps a bit too bland at times. I’m … average! 
But then, if I want to become “above average” is there a way I can be sure within myself that I’m heading down the right path?
Well, I think you can if what you want to achieve can be measured, and in most cases, most things can. Exceptions prove the rule.
So my first venture was my running ability. I class myself as average. It’s not a scientific measure, just a stake in the ground. And I’m happy with that. I could go to some lengths to prove it but I’m not running for office or anything, this is just me.
So, because my run is 4km, I simply googled “The fastest 4km” and came up with some hits. I did this twice and got two readings.
The fastest 4km that I found (you may find others, probably will) was 12:02. I rounded it down to 12:00.
My best time, and I’m average remember, is 28:00.
Here’s where it might get a bit anal.
I then broke the difference between my average time to the best time into quarter minute intervals (27:45, 27:30, 27:15 etc etc) down to 12:00.
There were 65 steps between 28:00 and 12:00.
So, from my limited knowledge of statistics and the infamous “Bell Curve” I then categorised each set of figures into:
- Average (from midpoint forward 25% i.e. up to 75%-ile)
- Above average (75%-ile to 90%-ile)
- High performance (Top 90%-ile to 97.5%-ile and;
- Ultra performance (Top 2.5-ile%)
(I’ve just done this quick I may need ot revisit my figures.)
Anyway, my point is by segmenting each minute into parts and then categorising them against the normal Bell Curve I get to see where I sit on the performance chart. As my time drops I will move through the categories.
So, for example, as I get to the 21.25 minute mark for 4 minutes I move into Above Average category. That is still 7-odd minutes lower than where I am now. It will be interesting to see how quickly I get there and what I have to do to achieve it.
To achieve High Performance, I need to get into the realms of 14.75 minutes! But I may not want to do that. I may be content with being “Above Average”.
I’ll attached the spreadsheet on how I came to this later on. (I may try and “pretty” it up.) Feel free to critique or let me know if I have missed a vital piece of the puzzle.
Also, if you’re already a runner, let me know, based on my table, what category you’re in. I’d love to know.
I’ll have a look into how else this model can be applied.
Bill
